The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an updated hurricane outlook Thursday ahead of what are typically peak months for tropical activity, and increased its chance of an above-normal season.
In their mid-season update, federal forecasters announced they are anticipating 14 to 21 named storms, of which six to 11 will become hurricanes and two to five will reach major hurricane strength. Major hurricanes have sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
Forecasters now predict a 60% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season (up from a 30% chance predicted in May), a 25% chance of near-normal activity, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season.
The Atlantic basin experienced an active start to the hurricane season with five storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane already. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.”
El Nino conditions are currently being observed and there is a greater than 95% chance that El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to the latest ENSO discussion from the Climate Prediction Center. El Nino usually results in atmospheric conditions that help to lessen tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop and climate scientists are forecasting that the associated impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season.
A below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.
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